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In or out?
In 70%  70%  [ 7 ]
Out 30%  30%  [ 3 ]
Total votes : 10
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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 20, 2016 1:34 pm 
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also interesting

https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2016/06/16 ... um-debate/


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Tue Jun 21, 2016 10:55 am 
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I wonder how football transfer and UK wages will be affected if the pound drops through the floor.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Tue Jun 21, 2016 12:58 pm 
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Will cost more for UK clubs and make it harder to attract/keep players as the wages on offer elsewhere will be worth more.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Tue Jun 21, 2016 1:10 pm 
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Serbinator wrote:
Will cost more for UK clubs and make it harder to attract/keep players as the wages on offer elsewhere will be worth more.


hahaha, yeah of course, I meant I wonder will it will impact the game here. Will players not come, because the money in the prem is one of the biggest draws, if it is devalued will they think twice. Is this why Zlatlan has yet to decide? Will the prem clubs reduce their valuations of players to suit the lower pound etc.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:22 pm 
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So brexiters in the aftermath of the vote would you change your vote?

No more money for NHS
No guaranteed control on immigration
Credit rating down graded
£ value crashing
FTSE dropping

Farage, Johnson & Gove all want a different kind of brexit

PM forced to resign

Labour imploding on itself

I've been out of the country enjoying some lovely beer sunshine and football inside the EU but have tried to keep an eye on what's been happening and this seems to be the general gist of it


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:04 pm 
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Not at all. The day after the vote was unbearable on social media, however. Anyone that voted out was labelled racist, xenophobic, small minded, ill-informed etc etc. We/they still are, though it's nowhere near as bad as it was the day after the vote.

Regarding the NHS issue, it's all come from an interview Farage gave the morning after the results. He was asked (not word for word) whether he can now guarantee the whole amount saved will be spent on the NHS. He said no of course not.

Two issues with this:

a) He's not in charge, he can't do anything at all.
b) The poster implies money saved could be used to fund the NHS. Likewise they could have also had adverts saying it could fund the police, or any other public service. Nowhere does it state 'if we leave, every single penny saved WILL be spent on the NHS'. To take the poster to mean that is just looking for an argument and refusing to use common sense.

As for the economy and the £ crashing, both were predicted beforehand. I don't pretend to understand the market forces that affect such things, but I could tell you the economy doesn't like uncertainty. Brexit winning is inherently uncertain, therefore the market would suffer, and as a result the £ would go down. Neither are a surprise at all. Also, yes the FTSE is dropping, but it's not as bad as is being made out (link). It's still well up from the low point in February. Other markets in Europe are down more than ours.

As for immigration, I said in one of my original posts on the subject I didn't think much would change in terms of immigration, and I still don't. I don't particularly want much to change. Immigration is a good thing. If from this we can get more control over the situation then surely most people would see it as a positive.

I didn't want Cameron to step down at all, that's disappointing and unfortunate, but understandable.

Points that have been lost in the frenzy to declare the World is over:

The BoE have said:

Quote:
...But we are well prepared for this. The Treasury and the Bank of England have engaged in extensive contingency planning and the Chancellor and I have been in close contact, including through the night and this morning.

The Bank will not hesitate to take additional measures as required as those markets adjust and the UK economy moves forward.

In the future we will not hesitate to take any additional measures required to meet our responsibilities as the United Kingdom moves forward.


Obama has said:

Quote:
While the UK's relationship with the EU will change, one thing that will not change is special relationship that exists between our two nations.

Not quite the 'UK will go to the back of the queue speech he gave a month or so ago. Shock :rolleyes:

The Canadian PM has said:

Quote:
The UK and the EU are important strategic partners for Canada with whom we enjoy deep historical ties and common values.

We will continue to build relations with both parties as they forge a new relationship.

Canada's connections to our partners around the world are among its greatest assets, and these relationships contribute greatly to the prosperity of all Canadians.


Germany have said in a government paper:

Quote:
...recommended Germany, in coordination with the EU, offers Britain "constructive exit negotiations" aimed at making the UK an "associated partner country,"


And Merkel herself has said:

Quote:
...there is “no reason to be nasty” after Britain’s decision to exit the bloc, insisting that Germany will not look to punish Britain to deter other countries from leaving.

She called for an “objective, good” climate during talks, adding: “We must not try to frighten other countries in the separation negotiation.”


The German automotive industry have said:

Quote:
She (Merkel) has already offered Britain an olive branch over future relations and today came under further pressure to be accommodating from the powerful and influential German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), which represents big car makers like BMW and Audi.

Its president, Matthias Wissmann, urged EU leaders not to commit economic suicide and damage German and European businesses by seeking to punish Britain over its decision to leave.

He said: “Even if many ‘experts’ are competing to paint the worst possible scenario, now is the time for calmness.

“Every possible measure must be undertaken to enable the continued free movement of goods and services between the UK and the other EU countries.

“Following British departure from the EU, it will be in nobody’s interest to make the international flow of goods more expensive by erecting customs barriers between Britain and the European continent.”

“We should do everything we can to ensure that this success story will be continued. Now it is up to Brussels to take action.”


Moody's have said:

Quote:
Alastair Wilson, the head of the sovereign ratings at Moody's said Britain is "not looking at a recession," despite fear-mongering from other businesses in the City.


And what of Scotland, who many expect to leave the UK as a result of this vote. I came across some interesting thoughts on the situation:

Quote:
Having just held her first post-Brexit cabinet meeting, (Sturgeon ed) is conveniently forgetting she has a £15bn black hole in her budget which is currently being filled by the rest of the UK. Let there be no doubt, that means the taxpayers of England are paying for the free prescriptions and university fees and much else.

German taxpayers will have no desire whatsoever to take over from their English partners and indulge Sturgeon’s extravagance using their cash.

To join the EU, the reality is that Scotland will have to accept the Euro and meet the convergence criteria which means reducing the budget deficit to at most 3% of GDP.

Currently it’s running at 10% or £15bn.

That will significantly worsen with independence when they lose the revenue from the Faslane Naval base and, worse, the jobs and taxes from Defense shipbuilding when that whole industry moves to Plymouth and Portsmouth. In reality, they could then be talking about a deficit of £20bn.

The only saving grace to offset this disaster would be if some Financial Services jobs relocate to Edinburgh rather than Paris or Frankfurt un order to remain within the EU.

Will the canny Scots turn their backs on the country in receipt of 75% of their trade and vote for massive Austerity ?

If they do, they will be one very small, deficit country among 28 and will have to accept full Eurozone financial integration. That would be more of a straight-jacket than the freedom theycurrently have within the United Kingdom.

Alternatively they can remain a significant part of the 5th largest economy in the World.

But there is another question if they choose to call another referendum :

Will England still will be willing to continue to subsidise Scotland under Cameron’s over-generous 2015 settlement? This has to be open to doubt.


I think the best way for us to move forward would be to agree a Norway-style agreement with the EU whereby we still have access to the single market. In doing so, we'd have to agree to the EU’s four freedoms: of goods, services, labour and capital. Obviously this would anger some Brexiteers as the free movement of people would still exist, but I personally don't see it as a bad thing (as mentioned above, and previously). This agreement would mean we still have access to the single market which is vital, banks won't need to leave London, again, vital, we wouldn't be subject to EU-imposed laws, though we could of course adopt any that we like, and best of all we are free to strike trade deals with the rest of the World without the EU.

I think the phrase 'Love Europe, hate the EU' sums up almost every normal Brexit voter. If we could have remained but had some reforms then perfect, I'd be totally on board, but it was never going to happen. This change was (I feel) necessary and for the long term benefit of the country. Hopefully we'll have a best of both Worlds situation.

Interesting times ahead.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:27 pm 
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I just think it's sad that thanks tory in fighting where the leader had to promise a referendum he didn't support just to hold his party together we had to go through all this. A referendum is not the answer the people should not be given this decision to make its far to big and far to complicated for the average man to understand.

The campaign tactics used on both sides were disgusting smear after smear lie after lie twisted stat after twisted stat it was like the cr*p you see from American politics.

Sadly this has totally divided the country as the result shows personally I don't think 52-48 is a big enough majority to force the change to happen its to close but it's happened now and those on the remain side need to accept it and try to make sure we come out of his stronger.

I don't actually see that much changing we will keep our rights to trade and one of the terms will be freedom of movement and complying with EU regs and probably paying some sort of annual fee to the EU for the privilege. We will never get a better deal than the one we already had in my opinion but let's just hope they don't try to f*ck us over to send a message to other countries who might be thinking about leaving.

We now start a 2 year slow plaster peeling process which will test the nation we either come together and try to come out strong or we continue to fight with each other and probably make things worse.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:54 pm 
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Quote:
Phillip Shaw, chief UK economist at Investec, said he believed the economy would enter “a period of near stagnation”, adding that a recession was a “realistic possibility”.

Citi, which has yet to formally change its forecasts, warned that downgrades were “likely”.

Goldman Sachs is now expecting annual growth of just 0.2 per cent in 2017, down from 2 per cent before the referendum.

George Buckley, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, said he expected Brexit to “focus minds” on the BoE’s interest rate setting committee on the long-term impact of slower growth — and a possible recession — rather than a short-term rise in inflation.


Quote:
Chris Saint, senior currency analyst at Hargeaves Lansdown, has warned that the pound could suffer large losses in the weeks ahead:

“It’s a sea of red for sterling again this morning as investor sentiment continues to sour after the UK’s vote to leave the EU. The pound has slipped below €1.20 against the euro this morning for the first time in more than two years. It has also fallen to fresh lows under $1.32 against the US dollar – the lowest level since 1985.

Exchange rates will inevitably remain very volatile in the coming days and weeks as currency markets digest the far-reaching implications of the referendum result.

Further significant losses for sterling aren’t out of the question, especially if incoming data confirms the UK economy’s slowdown and lifts the likelihood of further Bank of England stimulus to support growth.


Moodys must know something these people don't. BTW, the pound has fallen below that 1985 level today.

Quote:
Shares are hitting fresh lows after another wild morning in the markets.

The FTSE 100 index of major blue-chip companies is now down 100 points, a loss of 1.6%. That follows a 199-point tumble on Friday.

Easyjet has lost a fifth of its value, followed by Royal Bank of Scotland and Barclays (both down over 15%), and building firms such as Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon and Barratt.


Why aren't people listening to Moodys, the muppets!!

As for this Article 50 nonsense:

Quote:
Germany has ruled out any possibility of informal talks on Britain leaving the EU before it files formal notice of its intention to go, dealing a major blow to the Brexit campaign’s leaders.

As the US secretary of state, John Kerry, warned in Brussels that the UK’s departure would have “consequences” demanding “sensitive, thoughtful, responsible and strategic” leadership, chancellor Angela Merkel’s spokesman said only Britain could start the exit process.

If the government decided it needed “a reasonable amount of time to do that, we respect that”, Steffen Seibert said. But he cautioned: “One thing is clear – before Great Britain has sent this notification, there will be no informal preliminary talks about the exit modalities.”

Merkel herself told reporters she had “a certain amount of understanding” for the fact that Britain may need “a certain amount of time to analyse things”, but added that a “long-term suspension” would serve no one’s interests.

Eager to avoid a domino effect in other Eurosceptic member states, European leaders have said they want the UK to make a swift start on the marathon task of extricating itself from the bloc by triggering article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, the untested procedure governing how a member state leaves, as soon as possible.

But London has so far shown no sign of wanting to launch formal exit proceedings, with David Cameron, who resigned on Friday, leaving the task to his successor, and leading Brexit campaigners including Boris Johnson demanding informal withdrawal talks before locking Britain into the strict two-year timeframe laid down in the article 50 process.

Brussels has also emphatically ruled out informal talks on a possible trade deal before the UK triggers article 50. “No notification, no negotiation,” one official said on Sunday. A diplomat added: “If they treat their referendum as a non-event, we will also treat their referendum as a non-event.”


So, we're probably going to keep free movement of people. Senior Tories have also shot down this idea that there will be 350mill saving that can be spent on public funding. So not just the NHS.

Hard to see an upside, other than Cameron's political career coming to an end. Which was nice.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:02 pm 
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Honestly I think it will become tomorrow's chip paper soon enough. It will die down in the media soon enough.

Agree regarding the tactics used on both sides. It detracts from the actual issues at hand when there's so much squabbling and biccering.

I saw one of those online petitions that called for any future referendum like this to have no campaigns at all. Just the facts and let people decide. A pipe dream I'm sure, but that has to be the ideal. As it is a lot of people feel they were lied to on both sides of the argument which is why people need to ignore the nonsense in the media and read up on it themselves. Both sides were completely compromised due to personal agendas (mainly BJ and DC). A good example of this is the situation we now see with the Labour party. Everybody knows Corbyn is anti-EU, he always has been. He was forced to support the IN campaign by his party, and the result was the effectively non-existent campaign he ran because he didn't believe what he was saying.

You say we will never get a better deal than the one we had, I wholeheartedly disagree. The fact we're out of the EU and free from it's clutches, while hopefully negotiating ongoing access to the single market is a massive win in my book.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:20 pm 
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I think this is our 1 shot to get the best deal possible before we actually go will the EU give us something back to keep us in but once we put in our leaving papers I think we lose any strength we had in our hand when it comes to a negotiation America has spent years negotiating a deal with the EU ours could take just as long it will not be a simple process.

What is sad is I've seen plenty of small business owners who've seen there businesses crushed over night as orders from Europe have dried up the people in Europe are already starting to shun these people and these are the people who need the help. You can never really tell how much truth their are in these things that go around on social media but taken at face value businesses that rely on European orders are going to be hit as the uncertainty isn't going to help.

As for it being tomorrows chip paper I just don't see that happening we effectively have a leadership campaign coming for a new PM over the next 4 months which will all revolve around how we manage the Brexit and the next 2 years will be filled with constant updates on how the Brexit is progressing.

We all knew the collapse in the £ would happen and share prices etc would fall our (the taxpayers) stake in RBS is apparently worth £6.5bn less than it was a week ago but I have to ask is it worth it? I'm sure things will eventually stabilise they nearly always do that's how markets work but it will take years to make the gap back up and in that time I think things will stagnate due to the uncertainty over how this whole thing will work.

I just thing the leave campaign exploited the fears of a lot of vulnerable people at a time when their lives are being made worse by spending cuts. They targeted the money going to the EU and ignored the money that comes back through investment and they targeted immigrants who put pressure on public services and ignored the fact that the vast majority of them work and pay taxes that give them access to those services.

They also did the same thing that Trump has done in America this idea of lets make Britain Great Again. Well I'm sorry but if you ask me Britain is already a pretty great place to be if you're lucky enough to live here and there was no real answer as to why getting our of the EU will allow us to make it even better.

We've taken a huge step into the great unknown and of the 3 people who led the campaign Farage, Johnson & Gove I wouldn't trust one of them to look after my interests they all strike me as people who are only out for themselves.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:42 pm 
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JSP wrote:
We've taken a huge step into the great unknown and of the 3 people who led the campaign Farage, Johnson & Gove I wouldn't trust one of them to look after my interests they all strike me as people who are only out for themselves.

Could you say otherwise about any politician? They all have their own agenda.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:57 pm 
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I am still stuggling to understand how leaving Europe will solve existing waiting lists in the NHS and GP surgeries, existing housing shortages, existing problems of low pay and off-shoring of work to places like the far east.

The negotiation of Brexit will only distract politicians and civil servants from addressing these issues. If the economy tanks, we'll have no money to address these issues.

Therein lies the rub; how many voted for Brexit because of the shitty state of our nation? Will they get what they want, what they really really want?

Great line I came across today regarding the referendum: That wasn't democracy, that was a National Tantrum.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 4:52 pm 
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O-Dog wrote:
I am still stuggling to understand how leaving Europe will solve existing waiting lists in the NHS and GP surgeries, existing housing shortages, existing problems of low pay and off-shoring of work to places like the far east.

The negotiation of Brexit will only distract politicians and civil servants from addressing these issues. If the economy tanks, we'll have no money to address these issues.

Therein lies the rub; how many voted for Brexit because of the shitty state of our nation? Will they get what they want, what they really really want?

Great line I came across today regarding the referendum: That wasn't democracy, that was a National Tantrum.

I couldn't tell you why most voted out. Personally I voted out because I think we're better off out of the EU in its current format, and realistically we can't influence sh*t from inside.

There's only one side of the debate that I see having a 'tantrum' currently, and they're signing online petitions calling for another referendum because democracy didn't go their way :laugh: .

In all seriousness, I do think there probably was an element to the vote of people 'sticking it to the man'. All the experts and politicians were telling us we needed to remain, some people may have taken this chance to show their displeasure at the status quo. That said, experts aren't always right. If they were in charge of everything then we'd currently be using the Euro, and from what I saw none of them predicted the financial crisis.

I think we have an exciting chance to grow as a country and I can't wait to see where it takes us.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 5:32 pm 
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From memory many predicted the financial crisis it was a debt bubble that would only take one wobble for the whole thing to pop and crumble like it did but these people were ignored because everyone was making to much money.

There is also an argument to say who knows what would've happened had we joined the euro as events would've unfolded totally differently around the world. A fully committed UK might have had bigger sway in how the EU worked it might have been a complete catastrophe we will never know because it didn't happen.

I agree a lot of people probably did see it as a protest vote of sticking it to the man but all they've done is given the man much more power as they are no longer controlled by a much larger organisation. When all the experts and nations are in agreement you can probably assume it's in everyone's best interests to avoid rocking the boat.

I tend to agree with O-Dog I think a lot of people have become disenfranchised with modern politics but the main thing I'm still seeing is where is the post exit plan. We the people have voted to go on a trip without a road map of how we get to what we want.

In fact we can't even agree what we want as the referendum shows the country is split right down the middle which is the danger of having a referendum 48% of the country and facing a future they didn't want and it's not like an election where after 4-5 years you get another vote.

What happens if at the next election a pro Europe party wins? Could they pull the plug on the whole thing once we've asked to leave?


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Wed Jun 29, 2016 10:20 am 
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I believe the Lib Dems have said if they win the next general election they'll seek to get us back into the EU. A good campaign if you ask me - will garner a lot of support from all those angry with how this turned out.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Wed Jun 29, 2016 10:46 am 
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Serbinator wrote:
I believe the Lib Dems have said if they win the next general election they'll seek to get us back into the EU. A good campaign if you ask me - will garner a lot of support from all those angry with how this turned out.


Yeah I saw their leader saying they will present themselves as the pro EU party at the next election the problem will be by the time that happens the exit negotiation will probably be well under way if not complete so we'd be applying from scratch which would probably mean accepting much worse terms than we had before which will include taking on the Euro as our currency.

It will be interesting to see where the 2 main parties position themselves the conservatives were very much split on leave/remain and a leadership election will only split them further, labour is a complete mess as the MPs never wanted Corbyn in the first place but he's popular amongst the members because he represents a different approach to politics and sits more to the left than the middle on his policies. For years Labour/Conservative basically argued minor points over a middle ground one leaned slightly right the other slightly left but most of the time they were arguing pretty much the same thing and I think people became sick of it.

Interesting today that the SNP coming out and saying they should be the recognised opposition in parlaiment following the resignations from the shadow cabinet and the vote of no confidence in Corbyn from his MPs.

Until all this settles down Parliament can't even really discuss the result of the referendum and decide if they want to accept it.

The 2nd referendum petition is now over 4m people which means it has to be discussed in Parlaiment at some point but I sort of think going through it again is largely pointless because if the remain win then it'll just go around again almost to a best of 3 scenario and prolong the uncertainty that is currently hurting everyone.

For me it comes down to parliament will they have the balls to ignore the people and refuse to vote through the result that would cause them big problems as any MP who's constituence voted to leave who didn't vote that way can kiss his career goodbye as how can they say they represented the people.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Wed Jun 29, 2016 1:36 pm 
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I don't think there's any way they can ignore it. There would be a revolt. Democracy has spoken. They can't just ignore the vote because they didn't like the way it went.

I've seen some interesting comments about the way the whole thing has been reported in the media. They've made it very clear they think it's the wrong decision, however they aren't letting it go. They're constantly full of doom-mongering saying the country is on the verge of collapse, we're headed for a recession etc. and they seem to be actively trying to make the public panic into a self-fufilling prophecy. The BBC is think are more guilty than other news outlets. They have a duty to be impartial, yet you see nothing but negative reports coming from them.

The way London is being portrayed in the media you'd think 100% of Londoners voted to remain, but it was 60/40.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:55 pm 
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Just the way the media works though they've got 24 hours news channels to fill so why not fill it with FEAR fear keeps the viewers hooked I can't watch the stuff anymore or read about it. The politicians who f*cked us over and allowed this referendum to happen in the first place now need to get their sh*t together and sort it out for us I don't have high hopes on that as we've decided to leave the EU without a solid plan of how we want to do it we're now in this horrible state of limbo. Markets will recover by the day that article 50 (assuming it does) goes in they'll crash again and it'll be panic again then we'll potentially have 2 years trying to negotiate a way of leaving as we unbind ourselves from certain parts of EU legislation.

We face a big decision on if we want to remain in the single market because if we do we have to accept freedom of movement which was a big part of the leave campaigns agenda, we will probably have to pay some sort of membership fee and abide by all the rules which we no longer get a vote on or we pull out completely and accept paying tariffs for anything we want to export to the EU.

The fact some people (a small minority) seem to think that because we voted out it's now ok to go around racially abusing foreigners is very sad fine we voted to leave but both sides need to come together and say this sort of behaviour isn't acceptable and it's people who think like that who should be getting deported as they're not what our grandfathers/great grandfather fought in wars to protect.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Wed Jun 29, 2016 3:15 pm 
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I think a lot of the leave voters are regretting their decision and if the vote was today it would be different.

However you cannot have another vote, that's just silly.

Being ans Englishman living abroad it's all quite embarrassing really. And now with the upturn in racism and all the far right people coming out the woodwork and getting news time it's worrying time.

Not sure what we will do, don't want to go back there, kids are settled here as are we. To be honest a little worried about our future which is reliant on the free movement of people.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Wed Jun 29, 2016 3:23 pm 
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Absolutely, the small section of cretins who think just because we've voted out of the EU, it gives them free reign to racially abuse people either deporting, or putting down.

The Leave campaign was spurred on by playing the immigration card. Unfortunately that now makes it difficult to remain a member of the single market, which is imperative in my view. Similarly they also played up the cost of membership, when again, should we remain part of the single market, we're going to have to pay for the privilege. No money will be saved.

As for not having a say in laws etc. from everything I read we basically had zero say anyway, so nothing really changes in that regard.

I still 100% think we're better out, just my view of out isn't the same as the one portrayed by the leave campaign.

I want access to the single market
I want free movement of people to continue, though we will be able to gain a bit more control over it. From what I've read that will be possible while still being in the single market.

And that's basically it from the EU. This will leave us free to form our own trade deals with the rest of the World without the EU, we won't be forced into 'ever closer union', we won't have laws forced upon us by a faceless, unelected entity, we won't be forced to wait for the cumbersome EU to get trade deals done for us when some Italian farmers have an issue with the country in question...we get the best of both World in my opinion.

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