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In or out?
In 70%  70%  [ 7 ]
Out 30%  30%  [ 3 ]
Total votes : 10
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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Wed Jun 29, 2016 3:26 pm 
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Mr Carrot wrote:
I think a lot of the leave voters are regretting their decision and if the vote was today it would be different.

However you cannot have another vote, that's just silly.

Being ans Englishman living abroad it's all quite embarrassing really. And now with the upturn in racism and all the far right people coming out the woodwork and getting news time it's worrying time.

Not sure what we will do, don't want to go back there, kids are settled here as are we. To be honest a little worried about our future which is reliant on the free movement of people.

I think it was something like 7% of leavers regretted their decision, and something like 4% of remainers. I agree it would be different, but probably because more people would bother turning up next time. There won't be another referendum though, they had their chance.

As for the upturn in racism, it's not as common as it's being portrayed in the media, and I think it will die down once they realise not much is actually going to change, especially in terms of immigration.

You'll be fine, as will those that are already in the UK. Nobody is going to be force to move.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Wed Jun 29, 2016 5:29 pm 
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Serbinator wrote:
As for not having a say in laws etc. from everything I read we basically had zero say anyway, so nothing really changes in that regard.

I still 100% think we're better out, just my view of out isn't the same as the one portrayed by the leave campaign.

I want access to the single market
I want free movement of people to continue, though we will be able to gain a bit more control over it. From what I've read that will be possible while still being in the single market.

And that's basically it from the EU. This will leave us free to form our own trade deals with the rest of the World without the EU, we won't be forced into 'ever closer union', we won't have laws forced upon us by a faceless, unelected entity, we won't be forced to wait for the cumbersome EU to get trade deals done for us when some Italian farmers have an issue with the country in question...we get the best of both World in my opinion.


We had a say on the rules and laws as part of the union but we were one voice amongst 28 nations we had no special powers our vote was worth exactly the same as the vote of Italy or Romania etc which is how it should be.

We did have elected officials we had MEPs who were elected by the people of the UK to represent them in Brussels but one of them Mr Farage used it as a platform to grandstand against EU rather than try to actually achieve anything meaningful.

We were a heavy weight in that organisation but because we never went all in and joined the single currency we were probably never able to punch our weight plus I always feel with Britain our colonial past makes people very suspicious of us on the world or european stage.

You say we get the best of both worlds but will we get terms as good outside of the EU as the other side of the negotiation are dealing with a much smaller market we also don't really have anything to export other than financial services and high end luxury goods we are a mass importer of goods and now we face the possibility of more of those goods coming in being taxed.

You mention that the EU held things up which is true it's a huge organisation but there is also a case to be made that it also protected a lot of our industries from as the same rules that applied to us also applied to other. Having seen how our government has reacted so far nothing from that makes me feel that we'll get good deals when negotiating trade agreements. Also, what do we actually bring to the table when it comes to trade? We produce very little as a nation apart from high end luxury goods and we've got North Sea Oil but most of our big industry is foreign companies who choose to manufacture here as it was within the EU will all those car companies stay here for example?

This is the problem to quote Micky Flanaghan there is Out where we leave the EU but remain in the single market (which is what you want) then there is Out Out where we remove ourselves from both which is what a lot of other people want. This is the problem there wasn't a clear message from the league campaign were they Out or where they Out Out.

No doubt playing to the galaries promising money to the public services and controlling immigration won the vote for leave but this is all lies if they'd told the truth on these items they'd never have won the vote.

This is why I'm finding it so hard to accept the result it almost needs an In, Out, Out Out referendum to sort it all out :laugh:


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 10:52 am 
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If the remain campaign hadn't peddled spurious lies and non-stop propaganda that leaving the EU would send us back to the stone age, then I think a lot more people would have looked at it objectively and voted Out as well. Both parties told plenty of lies. All these people protesting and saying 'the elder generation stole our future.' What the hell are they basing that on? It's complete nonsense spread by the In campaign and is causing mass panic. How exactly have they lost their future?

With regards to terms, yes, we will get the same terms if we are willing to accept certain rules (free movement of people, trade etc) and pay our fair share. Much like Norway. Tarriff-free access to the single market. From what I understand we can remain part of the EEA and keep the above, while not having tarriff's imposed on non-EU trade. Why wouldn't anyone want that option?

As I mentioned before the vote took place, why would we tie ourselves to the one continent in the World that hadn't experienced significant growth since the global financial crisis? If we were already outside and the vote was whether to join or not, I don't think the vote would have been as close as it was.

You say 'we also don't really have anything to export other than financial services and high end luxury goods we are a mass importer of goods and now we face the possibility of more of those goods coming in being taxed.' Taxed by who? Should we remain in the single market the chances are we will negotiate tarriff free access. No increase in tax there. At the same time we won't have EU-imposed tarriff's on non-EU trade. If anything taxes will go down, not up.

Taken from wikipedia - 'In 2014 (can't find more up to date statistics) the UK was the ninth-largest exporter in the world and the fifth-largest importer, and had the second highest inward foreign direct investment as well as the second highest amount of outward foreign investment.' We're not small fry. Yes we don't export goods, but we're the world’s largest exporter of financial services. We have plenty to offer the World, and I have no doubt they are eager to trade with us.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 12:21 pm 
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The thing is Serb if the leave campaign said we want to the leave the EU but stay in the EEA which means we will have to allow freedom of movement would they have won the vote? We will never know the answer but my opinion is the immigration factor swung it for them everyone I know in real life who voted leave have said immigration played a big part in their decision and immigration is an issue in this country because it puts extra strain on public services that are already stretched. If we can't get immigration under control what was the point in leaving the EU?

As has been widely confirmed by both sides it costs us £350m per week to be in the EU and both sides accept some of that money comes back as a rebate and also as investment on EU funded projects most estimate that a more fair assessment is somewhere around £175-200m per week now in order to remain in the single market chances are we will end up spending most of that saving on our entry fee so we haven't really saved any money.

This is something I always come back to when thinking politics we simply don't pay enough tax in this country the people on good salaries have to accept they need to pay more tax, those on amazing salaries need to accept they need to pay more, the super rich need to be paying a lot more and business who operate in this country need to pay a hell of a lot more.

As for the young people having their future stolen the mistake a number of these young people made is they didn't bother going to the polls and voting and the reality behind a lot of that is most people who are under 30 probably have little interest in politics lets face it all this stuff is quite hard to understand. It's the same in elections the older generation turnouts is always way higher than the younger voters what the remain campaign failed to do was mobilise the young voters who generally leaned more towards remain than leave and get them to the polls on voting day.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 2:04 pm 
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I get that, and it is difficult to seperate the wood from the trees due to how much rubbish is spewed by both sides, what I don't understand is why they're saying they've had their futures stolen from them - what are they talking about? I don't even know what they're referring to.

I agree the leave campaign wouldn't have won had they said 'actually not much in terms of immigration will change if we leave, as we need to remain part of the EEA'. It's standard politics, lies after lies. The Leave campaign played on peoples emotions by talking about immigration, knowing not much (if anything) will change, and the Remain camp played on peoples emotions by saying leaving will throw us into recession, will cost every family £4,000 or whatever the figure was. It's nonsense by both sides. Unfortunately that's the way politics works.

With regards to tax, unfortunately if you tax the high earners more they'll just up and leave, and go somewhere with lower rates of tax. Likewise with companies

If they tell the truth I doubt many would bother turning up as they'd lose interest.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2016 2:52 pm 
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Serbinator wrote:
I get that, and it is difficult to seperate the wood from the trees due to how much rubbish is spewed by both sides, what I don't understand is why they're saying they've had their futures stolen from them - what are they talking about? I don't even know what they're referring to.


I think what is being referred to is the free movement. Without the free movement it will difficult for young people to work and study and even travel in Europe. There is talk that flight prices may go up too because the UK was instrumental in the EU for keeping these prices down.

If the UK is going to allow the free movement of people in exchange for tariff free trading then a lot of what people have voted for, stricter borders, will not be able to be enforced. So then you have to ask, what was the point in the vote? You will trade with Europe probably at the same cost per week but without the power to influence anything. So you have to assume the UK are going to accept tariffs in exchange for border control. Which equals no easy travel or work or study in Europe.

There is already strong talk over here that if that is the case, then Paris will offer favourable terms to all the the financial institutes in London to move to Paris, to make it easier for then to trade accross Europe. Paris will then become the financial hub of Europe. This is why there is talk of London somehow remaining in Europe which of course is a joke. But of course the financial is huge in the UK economy. If that happens it could be disastrous.

I think it is worrying times for the UK, I think a lot of people just voted on the immigration point and didn't properly think of all the consequences. I have heard of stories of Indians being told to go home. How can people be allowed a vote if they think the EU vote is going to affect Asian immigrants. It's embarrassing.

From here, it looks like a no win situation to me, if financial institutions and companies do decide to leave for mainland Europe, then what. So get them all to stay the UK are going to have to downgrade their stance over blocking free movement, so back to square one.

There is an area in Hull that gets 100m from EU grants because they are a poor area. This area voted out of EU.... crazy, do they think Westminster will give them that. The leave campaign said they would keep the farming and fishing grants the EU give to them until 2020. So just as the negotiations finish and the EU stops their grants, the leave promise of 2020 will be pretty much there.

The more I read about this the more incredulous it all is.

I agree on the tax too, the tax on mainland Europe is way higher than the UK. Also I think paying for a GP visit would could down on a lot of wasted time and money.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2016 1:32 pm 
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Farage has resinged as the leader of UKIP saying he wants his life back.

So you campaign for years to achieve something then walk away when the hard work actually begins.

Best thing I've read today is to governement are considering bringing in people from America/India to help negotiate the Brexit deal as they don't have the expertise currently to negotiate trade deals.

Given the way the MPs have behaved over the referendum and since you have to wonder do we really want to risk leaving these people unsupervised in charge of the country?


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2016 1:44 pm 
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A law firm is taking action to ensure the formal process for the UK leaving the EU is not started without an act of Parliament.

Mishcon de Reya, lawyers acting for a group of business people and academics, said it would be unlawful for a prime minister to trigger Article 50 without a full debate and vote in Parliament.

It comes after the UK voted to leave the EU in the 23 June referendum.

Number 10 said Parliament should "have a role" in deciding the way forward.

Following the referendum, David Cameron announced he would stand down as prime minister by October and would leave his replacement to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

Once the legal process is triggered there is a two-year time limit to negotiate an exit deal from the EU.

Mishcon de Reya's clients argue that under the UK constitution the decision to trigger Article 50 rests with Parliament.

The firm has been in correspondence with government officials to seek assurances over the process.

The result of the referendum is not in doubt, but we need a process that follows UK law to enact itKasra Nouroozi, Mishcon de Reya

The BBC's legal correspondent Clive Coleman said Mishcon de Reya believed that any prime minister using executive powers to start the process would be acting unlawfully because they would be overriding the 1972 European Communities Act that enshrines UK membership of the EU.

The law firm says that constitutionally only legislation can override legislation and an act of Parliament is required to give the prime minister legal authority.

The passage of such an act could in theory provide the majority of MPs who favoured Remain the chance to block the UK leaving, our correspondent said, but he added that this seemed "constitutionally inconceivable".

'Legal certainty'

Kasra Nouroozi, a Mishcon de Reya partner, said: "We must ensure that the government follows the correct process to have legal certainty and protect the UK Constitution and the sovereignty of Parliament in these unprecedented circumstances.

"The result of the referendum is not in doubt, but we need a process that follows UK law to enact it.

"The outcome of the referendum itself is not legally binding and for the current or future prime minister to invoke Article 50 without the approval of Parliament is unlawful.

"We must make sure this is done properly for the benefit of all UK citizens. Article 50 simply cannot be invoked without a full debate and vote in Parliament."

It has come as a shock to many that the referendum result itself is not legally binding in UK law and it alone does not trigger the UK's departure from the EU.

That has to be done under the withdrawal process laid down in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

It's argued that a prime minister acting alone under prerogative powers lacks the constitutional authority to trigger Article 50 and an act of Parliament would need to be passed giving him or her that authority.

The passage of that act would of course provide the opportunity for MPs (a majority of whom favour Remain) to express their views on Brexit and in theory vote according to their consciences.

However, it seems constitutionally inconceivable that Parliament would fly in the face of the Leave vote secured through a national referendum and refuse to pass an act that gave the prime minister authority to begin the "divorce" process.

In other words, the referendum has changed nothing legally but everything politically.

European leaders have said the UK should not delay leaving the EU, with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker saying the UK does not have "months to meditate" on activating Article 50,

The two-year negotiation period under Article 50 can be extended only with the unanimous agreement of the remaining 27 member states.

If there is no extension, the UK ceases to be a member of the EU on the conclusion of an agreement within the two years, but in any event two years after notice has been given.

David Cameron's spokeswoman said triggering Article 50 was "a matter for the next prime minister".

A Cabinet Office spokesman said: "As the prime minister said in the Commons, we have now got to look at all the detailed arrangements, and Parliament will clearly have a role in making sure that we find the best way forward.

"It will be important to ensure in moving ahead that the interests of all parts of the United Kingdom are protected and advanced."

Ex-defence secretary Liam Fox, who is bidding to become the next Tory leader, said any MP that voted against the referendum result "does not deserve to have a place in the House of Commons".


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2016 1:52 pm 
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JSP wrote:
Farage has resinged as the leader of UKIP saying he wants his life back.

So you campaign for years to achieve something then walk away when the hard work actually begins.

Best thing I've read today is to governement are considering bringing in people from America/India to help negotiate the Brexit deal as they don't have the expertise currently to negotiate trade deals.

Given the way the MPs have behaved over the referendum and since you have to wonder do we really want to risk leaving these people unsupervised in charge of the country?


New Zealand have offered us the full use of their negotiatiors

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 04, 2016 2:07 pm 
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When it comes to negotiating deals involved sheep we are sorted then :fonz:

Bloody Foreigners coming over here stealing our jobs :sulk:


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2016 5:02 pm 
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Quote:
A legal challenge over the UK leaving the EU will be heard by the High Court in October, two judges have decided.

A number of actions have been launched attempting to prevent the government from formally triggering Brexit without Parliament's authorisation.

During the opening hearing, government lawyers told the High Court Prime Minister Theresa May did not intend to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty before the end of 2016.

Article 50 begins the Brexit process.

A hearing in October will allow time for a possible appeal to be completed before the government seeks to leave the EU in line with the 23 June referendum result, the court heard.

The hearing will take place over two to three days.

Government lawyers are expected to argue that the prime minister can use historic Royal Prerogative powers to start the process of withdrawing from the EU, a course the challengers say is unlawful.

They say Parliament must give its authorisation.

The judges heard that one of the law firms involved, Mishcon de Reya, had received letters of abuse which led to potential clients who had wanted to join the action withdrawing their names.

"It is racist abuse, it is anti-Semitic abuse and it is objectionable abuse," Lord Pannick QC, instructed by Mishcon, told the court.

The judges ruled that the lead case in the action should be that of Mishcon client Gina Miller, 51, an investment manager and philanthropist living in London who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

Other applicants include London hairdresser Deir Dos Santos, 37, as well as Britons living in France campaigning as Fair Deal for Expats.

Mrs May has said she will not trigger Article 50 - which sets in place a two-year process for leaving the EU - until the end of the year.

The recently-appointed Brexit Secretary, David Davis, has said Brexit should be triggered "before or by the start of next year".

EU leaders have urged the UK to do so as soon as possible.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2016 6:11 pm 
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Seriously?! That's f**cking ridiculous. The vote has happened, they need to move on.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2016 7:41 pm 
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That epetition 4 million people signed up to got thrown out by MPs after it was discussed in parliament the referendum bill made it clear that it was a majority wins vote regardless of turnout.

I think there are bigger issues we now have a PM and cabinet that we didn't elect but they can't call an election because it'll just create more uncertainty that will destabilise the economy again.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2016 9:11 pm 
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We don't elect a PM we elect a political party we want to take us forward. Whilst I agree with the sentiment it's just incorrect. They decide who leads them and at any point they can change their leader we don't have a presidential system.

Even if it wasn't for Brexit they would never call an early general election. They'd have to call a vote of no confidence against May and then let her run.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2016 10:06 pm 
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I know but most people vote for a party based on its leader very few vote based on the credibility of your local MP which is who you're actually voting for on Election Day.

Loads of people turned against labour because they didn't see Milliband as a leader and the rise of the Tories was largely down to Cameron being seen as a strong leader.

When Brown replaced Blair after he resigned people knew that was highly likely to happen at the previous election

May could call the election it could potentially destroy labour for good and reunite the Tories as the pro brexit party no lost votes to UKIP anymore but I agree it won't happen there's no real incentive for it to happen.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:01 am 
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So we now know the government will go through with it in March 2017

The £ has crashed in value against the euro & $, interest rates have dropped to 0.25%, the FTSE has surged due to the fall in the £ (not necessarily a good thing)

We're also getting wild stories about how companies may be asked to list foreign employees

What the scary thing is we still don't really know what the f*ck Brexit means the government aren't telling us what the plan is.

I work in an industry that relies heavily on foreign labour and stable markets the next 3 years feel like they could be a real slog as investment outside of London is going to slow down as no one knows how the changes are going to effect them.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:12 pm 
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With regards to the strength of the currency, the dollar will crash soon, and the Euro is a ticking time bomb. As soon as Deutsche Bank explodes (worth looking into this if anyone hasn't heard about it yet, when it goes under it will likely trigger the next Worldwide recession), I wouldn't be surprised if that was the nail in the coffin for the Euro.

I'm more inclined to look at stats on the economy, which are doing surprisingly well so far by all accounts. It's still incredibly early to tell how this will all play out, as you say we've been told nothing about our plans, other than I think May said we will invoke article 50 early next year. At least we have a date for that (which caused another crash in the £).

Regarding foreign investment, I don't see any real reason for it to dramatically alter from previous levels. Surely a weak £ is a good thing for foreign investment, they get more for their money :shrug:

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:29 pm 
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Think the issue with foreign investors especially in manufacturing industries that create jobs is if they're going to be facing tariffs on exporting goods to EU then they kind of need to know what that will be because for example car manufacturing it might just be easier to invest in plants inside the EU so they avoid any tariffs. Instability kills investment as the risk becomes to great companies will hold back and wait for calmer waters before making big investments.

No one really knows how it'll all pan out if democracy has taught us anything it's probably going to end up with the rich getting richer and the poorer getting poorer sadly that's sort of how it works and leaving the EU won't change that.

I've sort of come to terms with the outcome we're doing this lets get on with it but some of the stuff coming out is f*cking insane asking companies to publish names of foreign workers and stuff like that is ridiculous all that's going to do is drive bigger wedges into communities between those who "belong" and those who don't.

The stuff in America is genuinely terrifying though can you imagine a world where the most powerful man in the world is Donald Trump?


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:57 pm 
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Regarding the US, initially I was of that thought, but the more I've read into it, the worse Hillary gets. That's not to say Trump is better, they're both just as bad as each other.

What I find interesting is how scared the established elite are of Trump. They're absolutely sh*tting themselves because he isn't a politician, and they don't know what to expect. Hillary is a politician so, a) they know what to expect, and b) they know they can buy her. Without question a Hillary win is a win for the status quo. Nothing will be changing at all.

Every single media outlet (or at least ones I've seen) is telling the public 'Trump is too erratic', 'he doesn't know what he's doing' etc. and to vote for Hillary, yet looking at opinion polls Trump is getting more and more support. I kind of see it a bit like the Brexit vote. I'd say the majority of the media and big players were telling us to vote remain, but we all know how it turned out (or how the vote turned out at least). I really think in both situations there's an element of the public putting two fingers up to the establishment. 'You can't tell us what to do' kind of thing. Or at least a vote against the status quo, the people have had enough.

You say can you imagine a World where the most powerful man is Donald Trump, well, will it be that different to what we have now? The sheer amount of shady ass sh*t that goes on that is kept under the radar is crazy, especially in the US. I'd hate to live in that country, it's messed up beyond belief.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit - In or out?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:52 pm 
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Yeah the lack of a credible candidant is helping trump people don't trust Hilary she is as you say part of the establishment but when you scratch below the surface so is trump he's only lived in high society from a rich family in New York.

I think like here the majority of people are sick of unfulfilled promises from politician after politician they make promises but nothing changes. I think like the brexit thing they're being sold a pup and very little will change with us being out of EU or Trump being in power the same people will remain in power in parliament or congress. How will trump get anything through congress when he's not even popular in his own party?


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